Learning from my TAN Bullseye trade loss

While my Bullseye trade of the week had a REALLY GOOD run lately, sometimes the market feels the need to rain on my parade.

I know the past week’s loss in TAN frustrated subscribers – it certainly bothered me.

 

I believe I took it well…

But rather than second-guessing myself, I want to dissect this trade.

You see, trading comes with losses. That’s inevitable.

What we control is how we analyze the setup and execute the trade.

The rest is up to the market.

So the question is did I make any bad decisions?

And what could I do differently that would deliver better results?

Let’s dive in!

 

Working through the setup

 

Before the market opened Monday morning, I sent the following email out to Bullseye Members at 8:30 AM.

 

 

One of the pieces I left out of this was how the election might impact this trade.

You see, there was an underlying assumption that if Joe Biden won the presidency it would create a favorable environment for solar stocks.

Funny thing is, that may or may not be true. But if enough people in the market believe it, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Now, here’s what the chart I used looked like.

 

TAN Hourly Chart

I dropped the orange line on the $66 level.

Early in the morning, shares cratered and closed the hour below that price.

Yet, as the day went on, the stock slowly crawled back to finish the day just below $68.

That is not a daily close below $66.

But, fear got the better of me and I exited the trade early.

So what happened the very next day?

The ETF took off like a rocket ship, blasting right through my target.

I sold my $4.20 call options for $1.85 at 9:35 AM on November 4th – about as close to the low as you could get.

To be fair, I thought I did the right thing because those same options traded well below $1.00 in the first minutes of the day.

Except….

That same option closed the week a bit over $6.00, a nearly 50% increase.

At its peak that week, the options sold for $8.00

The next steps

I want to point out what should be obvious but bears stating.

The trade idea worked perfectly.

If I stuck to my plan, I’d have turned a profit.

Instead, even after decades of trading, I let fear guide my decision making, pushing me out of a trade early.

It’s the very reason I use daily closes. Intraday swings are often violent and designed to take traders out of the positions.

Daily closes give me a better sense of where the actual trend is longer-term.

So, how do I stop this from happening again?

There are a couple of methods I found that help me.

First, the #1 tool to help is a trading journal. Logging your trades honestly helps you identify problems and opportunities, whether it’s in your trade execution or setups themselves.

More importantly, it cuts through the clutter of emotion that clouds your judgment to provide an objective look at the current price action.

Second, these trades don’t need to be managed obsessively. In fact, one of the best things to do is to place the entry order and walk away.

It either fills or it doesn’t.

If it fills, then I set alerts on my phone or computer when price hits my target. Otherwise, I log in 10 minutes before the close and see if I will stop out.

This keeps me away from the screens and gives the trade space to play out.

So here’s my challenge to you.

Do better than I did.

Take my Bullseye trade idea and turn it into your own.

See if you can turn a profit where I failed to.

Click here to learn more about Bullseye Trades.

Latest News

These are serious obstacles for AMZN

Amazon (AMZN) can’t seem to get a foothold these days. Why? After sifting through the data, I determined it comes down to three key reasons: Borrowing costs Increased competition Government action/inaction I can monitor these if I know where to look. And it’s crucial...

Watch for these signals to find a top in WKHS

As long as the Fed backstops the market, stocks can and will continue to trade higher. And based on what they’re saying...they have no intention of putting their foot off the gas.  It’s one of the main reasons why some market pundits believe that some stocks and...

Here’s How To Play The Surge In Oil

Crude oil futures, and energy related stocks have benefited from positive vaccine news.  And its creating a slew of trading opportunities…. So much so it makes me dance just thinking about it...  I use my favorite chart pattern to narrow down which plays I’ll take. ...

These Indicators Signal A Short-Term Pullback

  The S&P 500 has been on a tear, and it seems as if every week it makes new all-time highs. To me, it just doesn’t feel as if these gains will stick right now. Why? THE MARKET IS HOLDING BACK! You see, we could be in another record bull run instead of this...

One strategy + One sector = All winners in November

The best performing index year-to-date — Nasdaq 100 — is up over 40%. When most traders see those returns, they stare in awe and think they should just buy an ETF and hold. While that may be a good strategy for some… It’s not a strategy I love, when it comes to...